Sharks v Warriors Preview
Toyota Stadium - Saturday 7.30pm
FORGET South Sydney – the Warriors are the biggest disappointment in season 2008.
Having surrendered a 14-0 lead over the Rabbitohs in Auckland last week to hand the embattled Sydney club just their second win of the season, the boyish looks and smile of coach Ivan Cleary have been replaced by the drawn, lifeless look of a yachtie watching his holed boat slowly disappear below the depths.
Ricky Stuart’s Sharks meanwhile go from strength to strength, showing great ticker even without their valuable Origin duo of Paul Gallen and Greg Bird.
Last week’s riveting win over the Panthers was their sixth away win from eight games and it propelled them into equal first position on the ladder (albeit fifth on points differential). Before that they flogged equal comp leaders the Titans at home; they’ve now won four of their past five.
The Warriors enter this game having lost three of their past four games, a surprise away win against Newcastle – their only victory in Australia this year – their only shining light in a month of drudgery.
Both sides have two players scheduled to back up from Origin II – Gallen and Bird for the Sharks and Steven Price and Brent Tate for the Warriors.
It’s a big game for Luke Covell – he needs just five more points to become the third-highest point scorer at Toyota Stadium, passing Andrew Ettingshausen on 330.
Watch out Sharks: The Warriors may have conceded the most points in the competition – a whopping 361, some 41 more than the second-worst Bulldogs – but the stats still show they are capable of halting an opposition.
In fact, the Warriors have a better tackle effectiveness than the Sharks!
To date they’ve made 3,265 tackles and missed 392 for 85.1 per cent effectiveness, compared to the Sharks’ 3669 tackles made and 460 misses for 84.6 per cent effectiveness. This week Epalahame Lauaki makes way for Logan Swann, while Sonny Fai and Russell Packer are shunted to accommodate Price and Tate.
Logan will offer stiffer resistance in the back row, making 93.8 per cent of his tackles compared to Lauaki’s 88 per cent. If they hold their own in the middle of the park and they get some backline fluency going, they can still make a game of it.
Watch out Warriors: Ben Pomeroy will relish a return to the wider spaces in the centres after filling in for Bird at lock last week. The talented speedster has made more territory than any other centre in the comp in 2008, with a total 1300 metres for 108 a game and an average of 12 metres a carry. Impressive stuff.
And Ben Ross is warming back to form after his suspension. He was rock solid in the centre of the park last week, making 100 metres in just 54 minutes.
Where it will be won: Ricky Stuart will be only too aware this is a danger game for the Sharks. He knows the Warriors, when on their game, have plenty of points in them. And while he has confidence in his side’s defence (201 points against, the third-least conceded in the comp) he’ll want to avoid this developing into a dour dogfight, especially given the likely wet conditions.
So expect plenty of ball movement, with good offloading from both sides. Both sides have players in the top 20 for this stat – Gallen (20) and Bird (15) for the Sharks and Mannering (16) for the Warriors.
In fact, the Warriors have their nose in front of the Sharks in this stat with 11.7 offloads per game compared to 11. It all boils down to who can limit handling errors in the conditions – and surprisingly it’s the Warriors holding the advantage here too with 8 dropped balls a game to the Sharks’ 10.
The History: Played 21; Sharks 11, Warriors 10. The honours are even four games apiece from the past eight clashes although the Warriors have won two of the past three games – including a decisive 12-2 win at Toyota Stadium last year. But the Sharks still hold a 6-3 advantage in games played in the Shire.
Conclusion: Smarting off an embarrassing loss last week the Warriors will prove much tougher opponents here. But if Gallen, Bird, Ben Ross and Luke Douglas can all run for more than 100 metres in the game, it’ll give them the platform for a win.
Expect another strong support kicking game from five-eighth Brett Seymour – he set up a great try for Luke Covell off a pinpoint cross-field bomb last week. But if the Warriors blow out to a $3 starting price it might be worth having a punt on an upset.
Match officials: Referee – Ben Cummins; Sideline Officials – Luke Potter & David Abood; Video ref – Steve Clark.
Televised: Fox Sports 2 – Live 7.30pm
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
Source:
http://www.nrl.com
Round 14: Cronulla Sharks vs New Zealand Warriors
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